ANALISI COSTI-BENEFICI E VALUTAZIONE DEGLI INVESTIMENTI NELLE INFRASTRUTTURE DI TRASPORTO

Ginés De Rus, Concepción Román (Universidad de Las Palmas), Análisis económico de la línea de alta velocidad Madrid-Barcelona. Revista de Economía Aplicada, n.42, vol. 14, 2006, p. 35-79 [formato PDF, 1,55 MB]. "La inversión en infraestructura de alta velocidad ferroviaria es de alto coste y de naturaleza irreversible; sus beneficios están sujetos a incertidumbre y la construcción de la red puede realizarse gradualmente. En estas circunstancias, la evaluación económica ex ante es especialmente valiosa porque los proyectos pueden retrasarse. La inversión pública en esta tecnología requiere estimar el coste inicial de construcción de la infraestructura y los flujos de beneficios y costes operativos esperados durante la vida del proyecto. En el flujo de beneficios netos debe incluirse, junto a la disposición a pagar de los usuarios, los ahorros derivados de la reducción de la congestión en el pasillo de tráfico afectado, así como los costes evitados gracias a la introducción de la nueva tecnología. Sobre la base de un modelo simplificado de evaluación económica para la línea Madrid-Barcelona, las estimaciones de las disposiciones a pagar de los individuos y de la estructura de costes, se han obtenido los niveles de demanda mínimos que se requieren para alcanzar un valor actual neto de la inversión positivo, bajo ciertos supuestos sobre la tasa de descuento, vida del proyecto, crecimiento anual de los beneficios netos, y generación de tráfico. La evaluación realizada se fundamenta en la estimación de modelos de demanda desagregados a partir de la información obtenida mediante encuestas en los corredores: Madrid-Zaragoza y Madrid-Barcelona. En el primer caso, con la alta velocidad en funcionamiento se ha estimado un modelo de elección modal basado en datos de preferencias reveladas de los usuarios de dicho corredor. En el segundo caso, el modelo es mixto preferencias declaradas/reveladas. Los datos de las preferencias declaradas se basan en un experimento de elección modal entre avión y tren de alta velocidad que incluye, además de los atributos de nivel de servicio típicos, variables latentes de confort y fiabilidad."

Stef Proost, Fay Dunkerley, Saskia Van der Loo, Nicole Adler, Johannes Broecker, Artem Korzhenevych, Do the selected Trans European transport investments pass the Cost Benefit test?. January 2010, 22 p. [formato PDF, 394 kB]. "This paper assesses the economic justification for the selection of priority projects defined under the auspices of the Trans-European transport network. In analyzing the current list of 30 priority projects, we apply three different transport models to undertake a cost-benefit comparison. We find that many projects do not pass the cost-benefit test and only a few of the economically justifiable projects would need European subsidies to make them happen. Two remedies are proposed to minimize the inefficiencies in future project selection. The first remedy obliges each member state or group of states to perform a cost-benefit analysis (followed by a peer review) and to make the results public prior to ranking priority projects. The second remedy would require federal funding to be available only for projects with important spillovers to other countries, in order to avoid pork barrel behaviour."

Francisco Javier Campos Méndez, Ginés De Rus Mendoza y Ignacio M. Barrón de Angoiti, El transporte ferroviario de alta velocidad: una visión económica. (Documentos de Trabajo, 3/2009). Fundación BBVA, Bilbao, Marzo 2009, 46 p. [formato PDF, 484 kB]. "Tras recopilar información sobre 166 proyectos de alta velocidad ferroviaria en todo el mundo, este documento de trabajo analiza algunas de las cuestiones empíricas más relevantes relacionadas con el desarrollo que ha tenido en los últimos años este nuevo modo de transporte. El estudio comienza discutiendo la definición económica de alta velocidad, identificando para ello los diferentes modelos de explotación ferroviaria que existen en la actualidad. A continuación, a partir de los parámetros más representativos de la misma, se realiza una estimación de los costes de la construcción de una línea de alta velocidad ferroviaria. El análisis se extiende posteriormente a los gastos de operación y mantenimiento, así como a los principales costes externos. Finalmente, se estudia la demanda y sus proyecciones futuras, particularmente en el contexto europeo y en el horizonte de 2020."

Javier Campos, La financiación de la alta velocidad ferroviaria en España desde la perspectiva del análisis económico. III Jornadas Internacionales sobre Ingeniería para Alta Velocidad, Córdoba, 24 de Junio de 2009, 15 slides [formato PDF, 888 kB].

Javier Campos, La financiación de la alta velocidad ferroviaria en España desde la perspectiva del análisis económico. "Paradojas de la Alta Velocidad", Córdoba, Junio de 2009, 22 p. [formato PDF, 530 kB]. "Este documento analiza, desde la perspectiva del análisis económico, la financiación de las inversiones en alta velocidad ferroviaria en España. El trabajo comienza evaluando el alcance y objetivo de dichas inversiones en el vigente Plan Estratégico de Infraestructuras de Transporte (PEIT) del Ministerio de Fomento y estudia las fuentes de financiación previstas en dicho plan para alcanzar dichos objetivos. Frente a la situación actual, en la que la realización de las distintas inversiones parece estar condicionada a la disponibilidad de financiación presupuestaria y/o ayudas comunitarias, este trabajo argumenta que un criterio fundamental para la evaluación de la aprobación y periodificación de dichas inversiones también debería ser la demanda esperada de cada proyecto, proponiéndose finalmente algunos mecanismos simples para implementar tal evaluación."

Mark J. Koetse, Jan Rouwendal, Transport and Welfare Consequences of Infrastructure Investment: A Case Study for the Betuweroute. (Serie Research Memoranda, FEWEB RM 2008-12). Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration (FEWEB), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 2008, 24 p. [formato PDF, 201 kB]. "This paper presents a study on appraisal of the Betuweroute, a 160 kilometre dedicated freight railway line connecting the port of Rotterdam with the German Ruhr area. The Betuweroute is an interesting example of a major investment in railroads for several reasons. Political decision making on the Betuwe project and calculations on its profitability were based on questionable assumptions, the two most important ones being that freight transport by trucks would become substantially more expensive, and that inland waterways would not be used more intensively for freight transport. Even though construction is completed, it is still unclear to what extent the route is going to be used in the future. Even though this may suggest that the Betuweroute is financially unviable, it should be noted that it provides a potentially important link in the transport network that links the major harbours of Hamburg, Rotterdam and Antwerp with the German hinterland. If the line could – in the near or more remote future – attract a large share of transit freight, as was expected in official project appraisals, it will be of considerable importance for the competitive position of the port of Rotterdam relative to Hamburg and Antwerp. In the paper we provide a brief review of the history of the project and its place in the freight transport network of north-western Europe. Then we proceed to a formal analysis of the impact of pricing of the various modes on the appraisal of the Betuweroute, based on the MOLINO model. The network we use includes the ports of Rotterdam, Antwerp and Hamburg and distinguishes between transport by road, railway and inland waterways. Since the Betuweroute connects Rotterdam to the Ruhr area, we use transport to and from this area as the driving force of the transport flows on this network. We present model simulations for scenario’s with and without the Betuweroute and with and without marginal social costs pricing."

Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Marco Ponti (Politecnico di Milano), Il ruolo delle analisi economico-finanziarie nelle scelte ferroviarie. Presentazione al convegno "Quali ferrovie a Nord Est. Le proposte del WWF", Trieste, 24.10.2008, 29 slides [formato PDF, 731 kB].

J. Paul Elhorst and Jan Oosterhaven (Univ. of Groningen), Integral cost-benefit analysis of Maglev projects under market imperfections. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 1 (2008) 65–87 [formato PDF, 700 kB]. "This article evaluates a new mode of high speed ground transportation, the magnetic levitation rail system (Maglev). The outcomes of this evaluation provide policy information on the interregional redistribution of employment and population and the national welfare improvement of two Dutch urban-conglomeration and two Dutch core-periphery projects. This article also compares the results of an integral cost- benefit analysis with those of a conventional cost-benefit analysis and concludes that the additional economic benefits due to market imperfections vary from –1% to +38% of the direct transport benefits, depending on the type of regions connected and the general condition of the economy." Questo studio accurato conclude che i costi d'investimento e di gestione di possibili linee ferroviarie a levitazione magnetica nei Paesi Bassi non verrebbero coperti dalle entrate nè verrebbero compensati dalla riduzione di costi esterni.

Institut Montaigne, Infrastructures de transport: lesquelles bâtir, comment les choisir ?. Institut Montaigne, Paris, Juillet 2008, 84 p. [formato PDF, 620 kB]. "Ce rapport exprime une triple conviction, qui ouvre autant de chantiers à poursuivre. En premier lieu, dans notre société contemporaine, les choix publics ne peuvent ignorer l’avis des groupes de citoyens. Il n’est plus possible aujourd’hui d’imposer des décisions reposant sur des enjeux non clairement exposés, discutés et validés. Il est donc indispensable que les processus favorisent la concertation entre parties prenantes. La réalité est que la vision historique française de l’intérêt général – qui place la décision de l’État au-dessus des intérêts particuliers – a vécu. Encore faut-il en tirer tous les enseignements. Ainsi, en matière d’évaluation économique, il est douteux qu’on puisse demain se contenter d’une valeur agrégée. Il faudrait reconnaître dans le calcul les gagnants et les perdants. Les réflexions sur la récupération de la rente foncière, d’une part, et sur la compensation des citoyens soumis à des nuisances, d’autre part, participent de cette approche. En second lieu, la dimension économique de l’évaluation doit être préservée car elle est un indicateur de l’utilité collective. Le calcul économique doit donc être légitimé. Mais sans doute doit-il aussi évoluer profondément pour mieux rendre compte des préférences collectives. Ses valeurs de référence doivent rendre compte de l’objectif du « facteur 4 » (réduction de 75 % des émissions de gaz à effet de serre à l’horizon 2050). Mais elles doivent aussi être élargies à d’autres critères (accessibilité, maintien de la biodiversité, qualité du paysage…), qui seront sans doute difficiles à valoriser. Enfin, certains avancent déjà l’idée d’une recherche d’efficience (faire mieux sur un choix) au-delà de l’efficacité (faire mieux par rapport à un autre choix). En troisième lieu, le développement durable doit imprégner la doctrine des infrastructures. Une évidence est que celui-là et celles-ci se situent dans la même unité de temps. Penser les infrastructures oblige donc à un effort de prospective, qui n’est pas nécessairement – et sans doute pas du tout – un prolongement du présent. Ceci peut conduire à des approches nouvelles : geler le foncier pour préserver l’avenir n’oblige pas à lancer un chantier sans attendre. Une crainte est que le souci du respect de l’environnement ne favorise une réglementation absconse et exponentielle : bien utilisé, le principe de précaution doit mettre en balance les intérêts économiques, sociaux et environnementaux. Un fait est l’importance du signal prix dans une politique de développement durable. L’utilisateur doit savoir combien coûte le service qu’il utilise. En même temps, il y a des solutions pour les différents types d’utilisateur par une meilleure valorisation des services attachés à une infrastructure : modulation tarifaire, diversification des services. En résumé, au temps des listes de projets doit succéder une programmation politique précisant les enjeux, les objectifs et les méthodes."

Ginés de Rus Mendoza, Ofelia Betancor Cruz, Javier Campos Méndez (Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria), Manual de evaluación económica de proyectos de transporte. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, Washington DC, 2006, 188 p. [formato PDF, 2,40 MB].

Mark Koetse, Frank Bruinsma, Piet Rietveld (Free University Amsterdam), Costs of Road Infrastructure for Passenger and Freight Transport in The Netherlands. ERSA Conference 2003, 17 p. [formato PDF, 186 kB]. "In this paper the costs of construction, maintenance, governance and land use of road infrastructure in The Netherlands are allocated to several transport modes in passenger and freight transport. Opposed to earlier research, a considerable number of weight categories are distinguished regarding freight transport. The results show that costs per kilometre allocated to the heavier truck categories are considerably higher than those allocated to the lighter truck categories. The reason behind this is that fairly large parts of building costs and maintenance costs are allocated to the different transport modes on the basis of 4th power axle loads. Furthermore, large relative differences in average truck loading between the different weight categories have a significant influence on the results. Concluding we can state that when the distinction between weight categories made in this study is ignored, then a large part of the costs caused by heavy truck categories is allocated to lighter trucks and passenger transport modes."

Ginés de Rus and Chris Nash, In what circumstances is investment in High Speed Rail worthwhile?. (ITS Working Paper 590). Institute of Transport Studies, University of Leeds, February 2007, 34 p. [formato PDF, 711 kB]. "By High Speed Rail (HSR) we normally mean rail technologies capable of speeds of the order of 300km ph on new dedicated track. Such systems offer journey times that are more competitive with other modes, and particularly air, than traditional train services, and very high capacity. But their capital cost is also high. The proposals of the European Commission for the Trans European Transport Network (TEN-T) envisage expenditure of 600b euros, of which 250b euros is for priority projects, and a large part of this expenditure is for high speed rail. Thus it is extremely important to have a robust appraisal methodology for these huge investments. It is not clear that this has happened in the case of the Trans European Networks. Individual projects are suggested by, and appraised by, member state governments, even though they are applying to the European Commission for assistance with funding. Research for the European Commission has appraised the TEN-T network as a whole, but has not appraised the individual elements of the programme to ensure that they are all worthwhile (TML, 2005). The aim of this paper is to consider the methodology for the appraisal of high speed rail proposals, and to produce some indication of the circumstances in which such proposals might be worthwhile. In the next section we present an overview of the principal costs and benefits which need to be taken into account in an HSR appraisal. Then we illustrate the process for two particular contrasting examples – the study of HSR proposals in Great Britain, and an ex post evaluation of the Madrid-Seville line in Spain. In section four of the paper we formulate a model to incorporate the principal parameters influencing the outcome of an appraisal and in section five we use this model to draw conclusions on the circumstances in which high speed rail may be justified."

ECORYS Transport, CE Delft, Infrastructure expenditures and costs. Practical guidelines to calculate total infrastructure costs for five modes of transport. Final report. ECORYS Transport, Rotterdam, November 2005, 141 p. [formato PDF, 738 KB]. "DG TREN has commissioned ECORYS Transport and CE Delft to study the expenditures and costs of infrastructure, to propose an adequate classification of expenditures, and to propose a method for translating data on expenditures into data on costs. The objectives of the present study are threefold: To set out a classification of infrastructure expenditures, in order to increase knowledge of expenditures related to transport infrastructures. This classification should support a better understanding of fixed and variable infrastructure costs; To detail the various components of such expenditures for five modes of transportation, which would enable the monitoring of infrastructure expenditures and costs; To set up a methodology to move from annual series of expenditures to costs, including fixed and variable elements."

Werner Rothengatter (Universität Karlsruhe (TH), Risiken grosser Infrastrukturprojekte, relazione al convegno „Stadt und Verkehr – Innovationen und Visionen", 8. und 9. November 2007, Zürich, 45 slides [formato PDF, 0,97 MB]. (Il prof. Rothengatter esamina le previsioni di grandi progetti infrastrutturali e la differenza tra costi previsti e costi effettivi).

Operations Evaluation, Evaluation of cross-borders TEN projects. Synthesis report. European Investment Bank, December 2006, 46 p. [formato PDF, 898 KB]. "This ex-post evaluation covers EIB financing of selected cross-border (CB) trans-European Network (TEN) projects during the period 1995-2004."

Rete Ferroviaria Italiana, Rete AV/AC : analisi dei costi. Marzo 2007, 39 slides [formato PowerPoint, 2,83 MB]. (Analisi presentata il 27.03.2007 in audizione al Senato e scaricabile dal sito della senatrice Anna Donati). Analisi dei costi delle linee di alta velocità/ alta capacità realizzate e in costruzione in Italia, confrontati con i costi delle linee costruite in Francia e Spagna.

Paolo Beria, Transport megaprojects in Italy. Evaluation of large infrastructural projects economic feasibility in Italy: a comparative analysis. Politecnico di Milano, Laboratorio di Politica dei Trasporti, 2006, 18 p. [formato PDF, 280 KB]. "The paper derives from an on-going research project (started in year 2005) aimed to analyse the environmental impact assessments and the feasibility studies for some chosen infrastructural transport projects all over the Italian territory."

Paolo Beria, Marco Brambilla, Stefano Erba, The italian expenditure in transport infrastructure: a survey. Politecnico di Milano, 2004, 41 p. [formato PDF, 394 KB]. (Secondo lo studio, molti progetti di infrastrutture, in particolare per l'alta velocità ferroviaria e per il trasporto su lunghe distanze, non sono giustificati dal punto di vista economico e finanziario. Gli autori propongono invece una scala di priorità per gli investimenti, basata su analisi quantitative trasparenti e indipendenti). "After having analysed the official data and evidences of Italian rail and road systems, one can trace some conclusions and policy recommendations. Traffic data show a strong predominance of road towards rail in terms of traffic units (passengerkm and tonneskm) and short distance travels towards long distance ones. Long distance and international traffic is a minor part of total Italian traffic. Traffic intensity gets lower from North to South, with the exclusion of urban areas. To analyze the investments planned in the Italian context it was followed two different approaches. The first and taxonomical approach appear that the forecast investments in the Italian transport planning are focused on long distance corridors without any distinction for more congested areas. Rail investments are very similar in terms of monetary value to road ones, although the radical disparity between traffic volumes (see Table 40) and it is very hard to justify these projects, on the basis of a new modal switch with the available data that, in the last thirty years, show an average short distance for trips both for freight and passengers by road and rail."

Paolo Beria, Il ruolo e gli strumenti della valutazione. Analisi Costi Benefici e Analisi Multicriteria per la valutazione di progetti e politiche. Politecnico di Milano, Laboratorio di Politica dei Trasporti, ottobre 2005, 21 p. [formato PDF, 414 KB]. (documento didattico)

Ginés de Rus, Gustavo Nombela (University of Las Palmas), Is Investment in High Speed Rail Socially Profitable?. April 2005, 21 p. [formato PDF, 346 kB].

Ginés de Rus, Gustavo Nombela (University of Las Palmas), Is Investment in High Speed Rail Socially Profitable? Paper prepared for the V Milan European Economy Workshop, University of Milan, May 26-27, 2006, 21 p. [formato PDF, 346 kB]. Dalle conclusioni dello studio: "From actual construction, rolling stock, maintenance and operating costs of European HSR lines, average values of time, a reasonable range of potential travel time savings, and a 5% discount rate, we have found that HSR investment is difficult to justify when the expected first year demand is below 8-10 million passengers for a line of 500 Km, an optimal length for HSR to compete with road and air transport (assuming that the volume of demand is high enough to get a low average fixed cost, or alternatively HSR fares are subsidized)."

Marco Brambilla, Stefano Erba, Marco Ponti (Politecnico di Milano), Analisi economiche dei progetti della Legge Obiettivo, intervento alla VI riunione scientifica della SIET, Palermo, 13-14 Novembre 2003 [formato PDF, 295 Kb] ; presentazione [formato PDF, 486 Kb].

Bent Flyvbjerg, Mette Skamris Holm, Soren Buhl, Sottostima dei costi dei progetti di opere pubbliche: errore casuale o intenzionale? Archivio di studi urbani e regionali, 2005, p. 87-114 [formato PDF, 307 kB]. Lo studio "cerca di dare delle risposte statisticamente valide alle seguenti domande: quanto è frequente e significativa la differenza tra costi reali e costi stimati nei progetti di infrastrutture di trasporto?"

Michael Mann, Step change transport improvements: an assessment of the potential for 'step change' transport improvements to generate wider economic benefits. 2006, 38 p. [formato PDF, 308 kB]. Allegata allo studio di Sir Eddington per il governo britannico (vedi POLITICA DEI TRASPORTI), questa ricerca analizza vantaggi e svantaggi di una linea ferroviaria ad alta velocità nel contesto del Regno Unito. La conclusione è che i vantaggi economici sarebbero limitati e, soprattutto, bisognerebbe prima esaminare il possibile impiego dei grandi investimenti necessari in tutta una serie di opzioni alternative, tra cui il miglioramento delle infrastrutture e dei servizi esistenti.

"Conclusions on the strategic economic case for High Speed Rail: 41. Transformational economic benefits are unlikely to arise from a north-south high speed line because:

• UK cities are already well connected: it is hard to identify any promising examples of routes not served by air where day return trips are not already feasible using existing rail services.
• Agglomeration effects typically extend over 45 –60 min door to door travel time – even the fastest of HSLs to the North of England and Scotland are unlikely to provide such benefits.